The sometimes complicated, often cumbersome system of qualification by ranking points was first introduced for the 2020 Olympics. As we reach the three-and-a-half weeks to go point on our second trip along the Road to Tokyo, it’s worth taking stock of who is still on the journey, what they still have to do, and what impact this weekend’s National Senior Championships might have.
The basics
While, for the majority of events, qualification standards from 1st August 2024 have been acceptable, rankings are calculated for a 12-month period, so only performances between 25th August 2024 and 24th August 2025, in addition last year’s European Championships (most recent global championships) and Olympic Games performances, can contribute to an individual’s ranking score.
The relatively generous placing points available for National Championships (classified as category B events, the same as Continental Tour Silver meetings), means that results on Saturday and Sunday could have a significant impact on final rankings.
The often-tactical distance races at National Championships, however, means that the performance scores are sometimes so low that no matter how many additional points are on offer, they’re not going to improve an individual’s score.
And while athletes might be excited by the potential boost that a win in a fast time (or long distance) might give their ranking, they should remember that athletes from most other countries are also benefiting from relatively easy access to category B points this weekend.
For the past two years, the National Championship weekend fell right at the close of the qualification window, so it held particular significance for those still seeking Auto Qs, B standards and ranking points.
This year, athletes will still have three weeks to pick up points and get themselves within a quota spot for Tokyo, but there is an ever-diminishing number of opportunities to do so. Few athletes who do not already have the Auto Q will be invited to any of the remaining three regular-season Diamond League meetings, or the Continental Tour Gold (Cat A) meeting in Budapest.
Continental Tour Silver (Cat B) meetings in Slovakia and Switzerland may provide further qualification opportunities, as would an outstanding performance at any of the half-dozen or so remaining European-based Continental Tour Bronze meetings.
Irish athletes already selected and qualified
Irish athletes who benefited from last Summer’s Olympics being included in the qualification window include Rhasidat Adeleke, Sharlene Mawdsley, Sarah Healy, Sophie O’Sullivan and Sarah Lavin who all achieved the standard in Paris.
Andrew Coscoran (1500m) achieved the required mark indoors and Mark English, Cian McPhillips (800m) and Cathal Doyle (1500m), as well as Adeleke in the 200m, did so earlier this summer. Barring injury, there isn’t currently any reason why these athletes shouldn’t all be on the plane to Tokyo.
The women’s 4x400m relay and the mixed 4x400m relay both secured their spots at the World Relays in early May. Results in the 400m races this weekend may well help determine the makeup of these teams.
Marathon runners Hiko Tonosa, Peter Lynch and Fionnuala McCormack were all within quota at the end of the qualification window for that event, and have already been selected for Tokyo.
Athletes within quota, with the B standard
In addition to obtaining a quota invite from World Athletics, Irish athletes must also have achieved the B standard set by Athletics Ireland, or be selected for a relay team (i.e. already be on the plane), to be selected for the Irish team.
Kate O’Connor (Heptathlon), ranked 13th with 24 places available is the best placed of all the Irish athletes currently within quota. With few multi-event competitions still to take place, she is all but guaranteed her spot in Tokyo.
Nicola Tuthill (ranked 22 in the Hammer, with 36 places available) is almost certain to join her. Unlike O’Connor, who will now turn her attention to individual disciplines, Tuthill does still have the opportunity to improve her ranking score; the win on Sunday with a throw in the region of 68 metres would do just that.
It would appear that David Kenny (20km Walk) and Oisin Lane (35km Walk) have also done enough to secure their place in Tokyo. They are ranked 47th and 32nd, respectively. While Kenny is due to race the 10,000m on Saturday, he is unlikely to improve his ranking, as the event, not being a championship distance, only carries category D status.
The men’s 5000m is potentially interesting from an Irish perspective. Brian Fay currently sits in 36th position, with 42 places available. Not all the athletes ahead of him will choose to do the 5000m in Tokyo, but there may well be athletes who have not yet completed the required three events or have a 'dud' performance to drop from their score, and who will shoot up the rankings after their national championships or one of the subsequent meetings.
Fay is entered for the 5000m on Sunday, but in addition to winning he would need to run 13.17, or faster, to improve his ranking. Either way, he currently looks like the most likely of the Irish to make Tokyo.
Coscoran, has indicated that he would also like to make it to Tokyo in 5000m as well as the 1500m. He currently sits in 38th place in the longer event.
Should he choose the 5000m on Sunday, the win in 13:51 would improve his placing (his highest score is much higher than Fay’s and his lowest score is much lower). The win and anything faster than 13:43 would see him overtake Fay in the rankings.
Athletes not within quota, with the B standard
While this group of athletes, which includes Sophie Becker, Jack Raftery and Laura Nicholson, need points rather than a specific performance, a good performance would help maximise the points they get and the likelihood of gaining one of those coveted quota spots.
Having been injured for part of the season, Becker is currently 10 spots outside a quota space. While she would need to win in 50.67 (which would be inside the Auto Q anyway) or faster to make the quota cut-off next week, the win and anything faster than 53.85 would improve her score ahead of other race opportunities. The win, of course, is not guaranteed.
To date, Raftery has completed sparingly during the qualification window, and while this 44.98 personal best at European Team Champs earned him 1221 points, his three lowest scores (1143, 1107 and 1100,) will all need to be upgraded dramatically if he has any chance of making the individual event.
The win on Sunday in 45.69 (the time he ran in the World University Games final) would see him still needing two performances worth 1245 points to make the leap currently required. That would probably require a couple of Diamond League starts. A time in the region of his 44.98 personal best on Sunday would make the work required in the coming weeks a little more achievable.
Nicholson hit the Athletics Ireland B standard early in the NCAA season. The World Championships may not even have been on her mind at the time. With 56 quota spots available, an increase on previous championships, Nicholson may have an easier task than most to make the team.
The win, and something in the region of 4:13 would give her enough points to be within quota as things currently stand, and while results elsewhere are likely to raise that bar, she may benefit from withdrawals and non-selections of athletes ahead of her.
Israel Olatunde (100m) has considerable work to do if he has any hope of making the quota cutoff. If he has Tokyo aspirations, he’ll be hoping for a 2.0 m/s following wind on Sunday, helping him to the win in a very fast time; multiple withdrawals from the Road to Tokyo rankings; and maybe even a Diamond League start or two later in August. Tokyo is not impossible, but it certainly seems unlikely.
Despite racing the 1500m this weekend, Darragh McElhinney still has the opportunity to make Tokyo in the 5000m. He is due to race that distance in Oordegem, Belgium on 9th August. While he has already hit the Athletics Ireland B standard, he may need to run faster again to get inside the quota.
Efrem Gidey is just 4 spots outside the quota for the 10,000m. With no 10,000m this weekend; Gidey is set to race the 5000m. He’ll be hoping that results at National Championships elsewhere don’t scupper his chances of making the team for Tokyo and that he benefits from withdrawals and non-selections of athletes from other federations.
Jenna Bromell has run inside the Athletics Ireland B standard for the 800m, but has struggled to get in the races required to achieve the required ranking. Indeed, she’ll need both the heats and finals this weekend just to meet the required five performances. A place in Tokyo is therefore unlikely.
Luke McCann (800m) and James Dunne (1500m), who have the required B standards are both currently injured, and Sophie O’Sullivan, who has the B standard in the 800m, is likely to focus on the 1500m.
Athletes in quota without the B standard
Eric Favors has spent the last month picking up ranking points, moving from just outside quota, to four spots inside it. It now appears that all he needs to do is get the Athletics Ireland B standard of 20.40.
Favors set a new season’s best of 20.05 in his most recent competition, and will be looking to improve further on Saturday. He’ll then return to the US where he’ll have some final opportunities to achieve the standard if he hasn’t already done so. His PB and Irish record is 20.93 from April last year.
Jodie McCann made the 2024 Olympics at 5000m, but appears to be focusing on the 1500m this season. Her best performance of the season - 4:09.18 run indoors in February – is short of the 4:08.00 Athletics Ireland B standard. McCann’s PB is 4:08.34 from February 2024.
Others
A small number of other athletes have an outside chance of still making the team. Nick Griggs is probably the most likely of those. He doesn’t have a B standard, and would likely need to hit the Auto Q (3:33.00) to make it to Tokyo in the 1500m.
He’s more likely targeting the 5000m, which, like McElhinney, he’s due to race in Oordegem. There, he would need the win, and to go well inside the 13:18.00 B standard to have any hope of making the quota.
Of course, any athlete who hits the Auto Q would no longer need to worry about ranking points.
And so...
As things currently stand, 17 individuals and two relay teams would make it to Tokyo. The team may grow (or shrink) slightly over the next three weeks, but the situation is unlikely to change dramatically, at least until withdrawals are made. Either way, we'll keep the status of Irish athletes on the Road to Tokyo updated over the coming weeks.
Note: all calculations and references to quota cut-offs are based on the current points needed. These points will increase based on results at other national championships this weekend, and other meetings over the coming weeks, though there will be retired athletes, athletes qualified in multiple events, injured athletes, athletes serving doping bans and athletes not likely to be selected by their national federation taking up spots in the current quota allocation. Athletes will move up once these athletes have been withdrawn at the close of the qualification period.
