Fearghal Curtin

If the fresh new leaves appearing everywhere, the birds’ endless chirruping and the clear blue skies aren't enough to remind you that spring is upon us, then one look at the marathon schedule over the coming weeks surely will.

And there is much to look forward to on the marathon front from an Irish perspective, especially on the men's side. Hopefully the good weather lasts too.

Road season has already started

Paul O’Donnell will have surprised many when he dropped a 2:10:17 marathon debut at the end of March, and while that was 17 agonising seconds outside the Athletics Ireland B standard for Tokyo, it will give hope to others making their marathon debut in the coming weeks. 

Fearghal Curtin finished 5th at the Berlin Half Marathon on Sunday; his 1:01:12 finishing time puts him sixth on the Irish all-time list and within sight of the Irish record of 1:00:51 currently shared by Efrem Gidey and Hiko Tonosa Haso.

Peter Lynch, who ran a 1:01:15 half marathon in January, broke the Irish 10-mile record on Sunday (45.59), and has just missed the Irish 15km record twice in recent weeks.

Just a taster for things to come, perhaps.

Who is racing which marathon

Hiko Tonosa, the current national record holder who ran 2:09:42 when finishing third at the Dublin Marathon in October, will race Rotterdam this Sunday (13 April).

How to follow Rotterdam Marathon

Barry Keane, who has a half marathon personal best similar to Curtin and Lynch, will be making his marathon debut in Boston on 21 April.

How to follow Boston Marathon

Curtin and Lynch are due to take on Düsseldorf Marathon on 27 April. It will be Curtin’s first attempt at the distance, while Lynch will be looking to improve on his debut in Chicago last October.

How to follow Düsseldorf Marathon

David McGlynn, another to make big half marathon improvements this spring, races Hamburg on 27 April.

How to follow Hamburg Marathon

Former National record holder Stephen Scullion is due to race Copenhagen on 11 May.

How to follow Copenhagen Marathon

What they might be targeting

While it is not clear what each athletes is targeting - in terms of times and championships - these are just some of the significant marks they may have in mind as they complete the final days and weeks of training:

O'Donnell's recent performance suggests that the Irish All-time top list is due a major revision. Here's how it currently looks:

2:09:42 Hiko Tonosa
2:09:49 Stephen Scullion
2:09:56 John Treacy
2:10:09 Kevin Seaward
2:10:17 Paul O’Donnell
2:10:25 Paul Pollock
2:10:54 Mark Carroll
2:11:30 John Woods
2:12:19 Dick Hooper
2:12:20 Jerry Kiernan

The Road to Tokyo maths

Tonosa is the only Irish athlete who currently has the Athletics Ireland B standard for the event. His record-breaking marathon performance from Dublin last October and record-equalling half marathon run in Seville are good enough to rank him 62nd on the Road to Tokyo (there are 100 marathon places for World Championships).

While there are a number of marathons between now and the close of qualification (4 May), it’s unlikely that 38 athletes would run fast enough and gain enough points to push Tonosa outside the quota.

Barring disaster, we’ll see Tonosa in Tokyo in September.

Hiko’s Road to Tokyo score:
Dublin Marathon: 2:09:42 (1136 points) +plus 1st in National Championships (45 points) = 1181
Seville Half Marathon: 1:00:51 (1152 points) + 0 placing points = 1152
Average = 1166

Without earning placing points, Tonosa would need to run 2:08:46 or faster in Rotterdam to improve his Road to Tokyo score. A top 8 finish would add some placing points, from 60 for a win to 15 for 8th place. Anything better than 8th place with 2:09:35 or faster would see him adding some points to his current score.

Curtin, Lynch and Keane are not currently on the Road to Tokyo rankings, but their recent half marathon performances are worth 1138, 1136 and 1132 points respectively.

The current quota cut-off for Tokyo is 1103 points, though the points needed are likely to be higher come May. 80th place is currently 1137 points.

If Curtin or Lynch run the 2:10:00 B standard in Düsseldorf, which they need to be considered for selection, then their Road to Tokyo scores would be 1134 and 1133 respectively. These points would place them within the top 85 as things currently stand. Düsseldorf is a Cat F race, so even a win would only add an additional 5 points.

As a downhill course, Boston is not record eligible (and therefore not eligible for standards), so Keane's possible route to Tokyo is a bit more complicated. The top 5 finishers at any of the marathon majors, including Boston, are considered to have achieved the Auto Q, irrespective of the time.

Beyond that, the performance points are adjusted based on the rate of drop. Keane would therefore need to run much faster than 2:10 to get the points it would earn him on a non-downhill course. And even if he does run considerably faster, it's not clear where he'd stand in terms of achieving the B standard.

David McGlynn already has a Road to Tokyo ranking, but is well outside the quota sports. His Half Marathon PB from Barcelona is worth 1084 points, and if he was to run the Athletics Ireland B standard in Hamburg, he would have a total score of 1107 points, just inside the current quota cutoff.

The Copenhagen Marathon is outside the qualification window for Tokyo, so Scullion can't qualify for Tokyo. Given that Paul O'Donnell's time from last month was outside the Athletics Ireland B standard, unless he tries again, he can't be selected.

Tokyo may come a little too soon for most of these guys, but there's clearly some marathon momentum building ahead of LA in 2028.

Please do let us know if there are others we should be keeping track of.